Leo Gray speculates on where the sporting honours might go in the next twelve months
Taking a sporting chance
WHEN IT COMES TO SPORTS PREDICTIONS, I SEEM TO SUFFER FROM HYPEROPIA. THE CONDITION BANJAXES MY ATTEMPTS AT IMMEDIATE FORECASTING, IT SEEMS, BUT OFFERS ME A FAIR CHANCE OF GETTING LONGDISTANCE PREDICTIONS CLOSE TO THE MARK.

Sligo and Kerry slog it out at Tralee in the 2009 All-Ireland qualifiers. Both counties will be hoping to figure prominently in the hunt for honours in the coming year
Wednesday January 13 2010
I've come to this conclusion on the basis of some crystal ball gazing exercises in the past which produced conclusive evidence that my predictions for the forthcoming year are unlikely to bear fruit in the next twelve months but could prove a bit prophetic further down the line. The strange phenomenon was gloriously revealed when I tipped Mon Mome to win the 2008 Aintree Grand National. In my predictions for that year, I suggested the following: 'Keep an eye out for Mon Mome, who ran a cracker in the Welsh National at Christmas.
I don't know if the horse is entered for the Aintree showpiece but if he runs, he could be worth an each-way flutter'
Come the 2008 National and they probably needed search lights to find the old nag, so miserably did he perform at Aintree. But guess what? He comes back to Liverpool in 2009 and romps home at 100/1, the longest priced winner of the race since Fionavon's sensational victory in 1967. And did I back it? Not as much as a cent.
After that experience, it would, I'm sure you would agree, be a happy release for us all if I abandoned any further attempt at forecasting – not even Met Eireann are so unreliable – but I'm a glutton for punishment and I can't resist the almost feverish desire of every sports journalist to indulge in a bit of New Year speculation.
And so I'm taking the plunge again. But be warned, what you are about to read will almost certainly not materialise in Twenty Ten. Twenty Eleven maybe or, then again, maybe not. So, with apologies to all those whose hopes and aspirations I'm about to burden with the kiss of death, here it goes.
First up, it's the GAA season. The fact that two counties, Kerry and Tyrone, shared eight of the last ten All-Irelands between them suggests that the Sam Maguire is becoming the domain of an elite group of counties while there is also a growing body of opinion that the AllIreland qualifiers, as currently constituted, are diminishing the value of the Provincial Championships.
Personally, I would like to see an unseeded open draw involving all thirtytwo counties for the All-Ireland with home and away matches in the early rounds, and the Provincial Championships run as stand-alone competitions, but that's a debate for another day.
While it's a safe bet that the big guns will still be involved in the race for honours around the end of August, there could be a few suprises along the way.
In Connacht, the arrival of Joe Kernan at Galway should ensure that the Tribesmen are well prepared mentally and physically for a concerted summer campaign and I take them to emerge as Provincial champions. Sligo made rapid progress under Kevin Walsh last season and are, I believe, well capable of producing what most people would regard as a shock result against Mayo in the summer. I hope I'm wrong in dismissing them as Championship winners and a good run in the Qualifiers is certainly a realistic ambition.
The Dubs ongoing search for the big breakthrough will, as always, command a lot of attention and it will be interesting to see how last year's mauling by Kerry will effect confidence and morale. If the draw works out as expected in Leinister, they will face a humdinger with Meath in the Provincial semi-final. That's a close one to call but, in any event, the winners may have to settle for runners-up spot in the final. My tip for Leinister glory are Kildare who showed up really well last year and are now poised to deliver the goods.
Ulster will be as competitive as usual. Tyrone, with the maestro Mickey Harte still pulling the strings, are the best team in the Province but that doesn't always translate into Championship glory. They are equipped to stay the distance, even if it means taking the back door route, and would have to be regarded as strong AllIreland contenders, whether they win Ulster or not. As an alternative to Tyrone in the Ulster Championship, I suggest Derry who, despite having a tough draw, have the potential to go all the way, especially if the prolific Paddy Bradley is fit and in top form.
Cork and Kerry should produce one of the games of the year in the Munster semi-final. Cork are due a bit of luck against their great rivals after last year's All-Ireland final but Kerry are unlikely to be as poor this summer as they were in the early part of the 2009 Championship. Kerry to edge Cork and go on to beat Limerick in the Provincial final.
And the All-Ireland? Winning back to back All-Irelands is a demanding challenge for any county but Kerry have the resources to do it. The few frights they got last summer was just the kick in the backside they needed and there is unlikely to be any complacency or lack of application on their part this year. So it's Kerry for 'Sam' with Kildare as the best outsiders.
It should be a great hurling Championship this year as Tipperary and Cork and possibly Waterford shape up to knock Kilkenny off their pedastal. However, Brian Cody's relentless drive for perfection should ensure that the Cats get the cream again.
On the local GAA scene, the senior club championship will, no doubt, provide plenty of thrills and spills before the destination of the Owen B Hunt Cup is determined. Tourlestrane, Eastern Harps and Curry will be leading contenders but St. John's, providing they can keep their key players fit and find a bit of self-belief, get my vote. Anybody looking for a bit of an outside bet could do worse than keep an eye on Calry/St Joseph's.
It promises to be an eventful year on the soccer scene with the World Cup in South Africa taking centre-stage. The seedings have ensured that most of the big nations will have a comfortable passage to the knock-out stages but there could be a few surprises from there on.
Brazil, as ever, have to be respected and Spain's outstanding performance at the European Championships clearly marks them out as genuine contenders. Both these countries should reach the semi-finals and England have the players and the manager to make it to the last four as well. But, despite an eccentric coach and a team which underperformed in the qualifying stages, Argentina are my choice as outright winners. They are currently priced at 9/1, exceedingly generous odds for a team containing the best player on the planet, Lionel Messi, and inventive forwards, Carlos Tevez and Sergio Aguero.
Neither Chelsea nor Manchester United are setting the world alight at the minute but the Premiership race will proably boil down to a straight fight between the pair. United's squad lacks genuine strength in depth and this could prove to be their downfall on the run-in. Chelsea to take the title.
Arsenal are easy on the eye but always promise more than they deliver in the League. That said, they are close enough if good enough to land the title this year but will probably come up just a bit short. I will, however, burden them with my tip for the FA Cup. And it's Barcelona for the Champions' League.
The domestic soccer scene is a bit of a mess and it's anybody's guess as to the stability of the League of Ireland, never mind the individual clubs. Shamrock Rovers fared better than anybody expected last year and appear to have a sound financial structure, a reasonably good squad, a huge fan base and a sensible manager. All of that should give them an edge over their rivals and they are my nomination as League champions.
Sligo Rovers, in fairness, tick most of the boxes as well and if the disappointment of losing last year's Cup final to Sporting Fingal doesn't put too much of a dent in confidence, they should have another good year. The squad is taking shape nicely and I would not be surprised to see them right up there with the front runners. Reached the semi-finals of the EA Sports League Cup and the final of the FAI Cup in 2009 so Paul Cook clearly has the knack of firing up his team for the big occasions. They fit the profile as FAI Cup winners this time around.
Rugby is the buzz sport in the country at the moment and there's no reason to expect anything other than a hugely exciting season ahead on the club and international stage. Munster to win the Heineken Cup while France might steal Ireland's thunder in the Six Nations.
One the most eagerly anticipated sporting events of the year is the expected showdown between Kauto Star and Denman in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. If both survive unscathed until March 19th, we should be in for an epic battle. It's Kauto for me.
And now for the winner of the 2011 Grand National – sorry that should be 2010, shouldn't it? Remarkably, Tony McCoy, the greatest jockey of all time in my humble opinion, has never won the Aintree marathon but I think this could be his year. Can't Buy Time is his likely mount at this stage, although that could all change between now and April. Anyway, forced to predict the winner at this stage, I will stick with Can't Buy Time.
Whatever your sporting preference, enjoy Twenty Ten, take the good with the bad and just lap up the drama of it all.
Happy New Year